Totally, it's the exact same idea of a weak bond failing under stress. A glue joint will just pop apart if the surface is dirty, and a cold shut in forging is basically metal that didn't stick. It all comes down to perfect prep for a real connection.
What?! Every single time? That's wild. @wren602 is onto something with the cleaning idea (like, seriously). If there's even a little scale or the temp is off by a hair, it's just gonna split. I messed up a whole batch of hinges once by rushing the brushing step. It has to be perfectly clean and hot, not just kinda clean and sorta hot.